Do you know that Japanese weather patterns can affect the annual number of tornadoes in the United States? Although the island nation is thousands of miles from the heart of Tornado Alley, migrating sea surface temperatures off Japan’s eastern coast in the winter can fuel North America’s springtime weather. Weather and climate don’t happen in a vacuum. What happens upstream at higher latitudes shapes weather patterns further east and south. When forecasting how many tornadoes we’ll see any given year, meteorologists carefully examine sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean in the lead-up to storm season. Although statistical anomalies can skew forecasting data, these models are the industry go-to in forecasting tornadoes.
Colliding Bodies of Warm Water Could Spell Disaster This Storm Season
When forecasting the upcoming tornado season, storm chasers examine the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific-equatorial El Nino regions. These dichotomous bodies of water collide near the continental US, fueling the Jet Stream and weather for the United States that spring. This year, forecasters expect a migrating body of warm Japanese water to merge with the warmer-than-average NPO and a maturing El Nino system this spring. But what does that mean for tornado season? Historically, warm-water combinations in the North and South Pacific are rare, but the results can be disastrous when they do coalesce. In most years, meteorologists see opposing warm-cold bodies of water in the NPO and the equatorial Pacific’s El Nino region. So, seeing warm sea level temperatures in both seas is concerning. The 1991 storm season saw a similar warm-warm overlap. While the Deep South experienced fewer tornadoes that year, Tornado Alley was more active than usual. Altogether, 1991 saw 1,226 tornadoes nationwide, including a monstrous EF5 tornado in Andover, Kansas, the site of a near-identical twister that struck the same town in 2022.
Tornado Alley Reawakens
Tornado Alley has been eerily quiet for the past few years, but meteorologists expect conditions will rapidly deteriorate this spring. In addition to the colliding warm waters of the NPO and Pacific equatorial regions, storm chasers are also paying particular attention to a warmer-than-usual Gulf of Mexico that is also expected to contribute to the 2024 tornado season. While the Gulf of Mexico typically impacts the severity of storms in the Midwest, the combination of merging warm air masses further west is nearly unprecedented. Although meteorologists expect a decrease in tornadoes along the eastern seaboard, Tornado Alley could see a record number of confirmed touchdowns in 2024.
Tornado Predictions For Each State
Below is a list of the expected numbers of tornadoes each state can expect in 2024. While the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky will see fewer tornadoes in 2024, Texas and Oklahoma could see a combined total of 240 tornadoes this season. Altogether, the United States is forecasted to see 1,207 tornadoes in 2024 – 15 percent above the national average.
2024 Tornado Predictions
- Florida………65
- Louisiana…..55
- Alabama…….45
- Mississippi….54
- Arkansas……50
- Georgia………30
- So Carolina….20
- No. Carolina….20
- Virginia……..15
- Tennessee….25
- Kentucky……20
- Texas……….150
- New Mexico…25
- Oklahoma…..90
- Kansas………90
- Nebraska…..50
- Iowa………….50
- Missouri…….50
- Indiana………20
- Illinois………..50
- Ohio…………..10
- Michigan……..10
- Pennsylvania…10
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